How Rising Rents and Changing Childcare Conditions Are Impacting the Real Estate Market
Hello from Chiyoda-ku Mansion Information Center.
Today, we’re picking up on a headline from the June 2025 Nikkei: “Tokyo’s 23 Wards See Birthrate Drop to 0.96.”
We’ll explain what this figure means and how it could impact our daily lives and real estate investments.
◆ Below 1.0 Birthrate: The Return of the “Tokyo Shock”
Tokyo’s total fertility rate (average number of children a woman has in her lifetime) hit a historic low of 0.96 in 2024.
This marked a further decline from the 2023 “0.99 shock,” signaling what many are now calling a renewed “Tokyo shock.”
Behind this trend lie multiple social factors, but two stood out this time:
- Soaring rents and condo prices
- Long working hours squeezing lifestyle balance
◆ Why Are Families Moving Out of Tokyo’s 23 Wards?
Data from Japan’s Ministry of Health and Internal Affairs shows that while Tokyo continues to attract people in their 20s, those in their 30s and 40s (prime child-rearing ages) are increasingly leaving.
Breakdown:
- 20s: Net inflow of about 87,500
- 30s–40s: Net outflow of about 9,500
One major reason is the issue of housing price vs. size.
According to Tokyo Kantei, the average rent in Tokyo’s 23 wards hit a record high of 4,608 yen/m² as of April 2024, the third consecutive record-setting month.
Meanwhile, average new condo sizes have shrunk by 7% over the last 10 years (to 66.42 m², per the Real Estate Economic Institute).
In short: “High rents, small spaces” is not a family-friendly combo, prompting many to relocate to the suburbs or regional areas.
◆ Work-Life Balance Still a Major Hurdle
Tokyo also ranks among the highest nationwide in overtime work.
As of 2023, the percentage of overtime hours in Tokyo was 8.4%, ranking 2nd nationally.
The work-from-home boom seen during the pandemic has since tapered off, with the remote work rate now down to just over 40% as of 2025 — a sign that flexible work styles are far from universal.
◆ Tokyo’s Proactive Measures Against Low Birthrates
In response, Tokyo has ramped up child-rearing support:
- Free daycare for children aged 0–2 (including firstborns)
- Removal of income caps for medical subsidies
- Monthly ¥5,000 cash payments for children aged 0–18
The annual budget for these programs exceeds ¥1.2 trillion, with the 2025 fiscal child-rearing support budget reaching nearly ¥2 trillion.
As a result, Tokyo saw a 6.5% rise in marriage registrations in 2024, and the decline in births has been milder than the national average — with officials stating, “We’re starting to see results.”
◆ What It Means for the Real Estate Market
While falling birthrates can shrink housing demand overall, it also means that “child-friendly housing environments” are becoming more valuable.
New trends to watch:
- Spacious layouts (70 m² or more) for families
- Good access to schools and daycare
- Home office spaces
- Shared services for working couples (e.g., concierge, delivery lockers)
Such properties tend to maintain stable asset values and are increasingly attractive for investors.
◆ Final Thoughts: Choosing Real Estate with Tokyo’s Future in Mind
Birthrate data reflects broader social trends — from housing costs to work style.
Tokyo’s real estate market is changing, and so must the way we evaluate property investments.
Ask yourself:
- “Will this property retain value in the future?”
- “Can a family live comfortably here?”
These are the questions that really matter now.
📞 For inquiries about wealth-managed property investments, contact
MIRABELL Corporation
Contact: Mr. Masaru Ogawa
Phone: 03-3261-5815
Mobile: 080-6794-3089
📩 Email: ogawa@mirabell.co.jp
🌐 Chiyoda-ku Mansion Information Center
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株式会社MIRABELL（ミラベル） 担当：小川
TEL：03-3261-5815
携帯：080-6794-3089
✉️ メール：ogawa@mirabell.co.jp
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株式会社MIRABELL 担当：小川
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